U.S. drivers have not been handed a sub-$4 gasoline average. GasBuddy still put the national average at $4.06 a gallon on Thursday and early Friday, Nov. 6, CBS News reported.

Patrick De Haan, a GasBuddy petroleum analyst, expects that average to fall below $4 by next week and said diesel could fall below $6 by Thanksgiving. Tom Kloza of Gulf Oil expects the gasoline average under $4 within about 10 days. He put the typical station markup near 75 cents a gallon and called a more normal markup about 40 cents. Those are forecasts and one expert’s margin view, not a completed national price.

De Haan tied recent declines to hopes for a deal on the Iran war, more tanker traffic through Hormuz, less autumn driving, and the switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline. CBS did not publish a new government pump survey. A cheaper blend is not the same thing as a price already under $4.

Is the U.S. gasoline average already below $4? No. It was still $4.06 early Friday. Any move under $4, or diesel under $6, remains a forecast.