US profit growth may slow next year. What should readers take from that?

Analysts expect earnings at US companies in the S&P 500 to grow about 35% in 2026, the fastest pace since 2021, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Their current 2027 estimate is around 15%. The forecast remains above the long-run average, but the expected slowdown has helped bring the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio down from 22 at the start of this year to 19.2.

What it means: Does slower profit growth mean a recession is coming? No. It means analysts expect the pace of profit increases to cool, not that profits will necessarily fall. The estimates could change as companies report results; AI investment, financing costs and consumer demand are among the uncertainties behind them.