September’s grocery index did not rise with the inflation headline. Fox Business, citing Wednesday’s October 14 CPI release, reported that food prices were unchanged in September, but fruits and vegetables rose 0.5% on the month and coffee rose 0.9%. CNBC and the BBC reported the same flat monthly food result and a 2.5% annual food increase. Food at home fell 0.1% on the month and was 1.8% above a year ago. Food away from home, including restaurants, rose 0.2% on the month and 3.5% on the year.
The other aisle-level indexes also diverged. Eggs fell 1.3% in September and were 20.6% lower than a year earlier. Beef and veal fell 1% on the month but were still 3.5% higher than a year ago. Meats, poultry and fish fell 0.4% in September and were up 2.2% on the year. Fruits and vegetables were 3.7% higher than a year ago, and coffee was up 7.1%.
These are national September CPI categories, not one store’s prices. A monthly decline in beef does not cancel its annual increase. The same release showed gasoline driving about half of the broader monthly CPI rise.
Did the 3.7% inflation rate mean grocery prices rose 3.7% in September? No. The food index was unchanged in September, and food at home fell 0.1%. Gasoline, not groceries, accounted for about half of the monthly CPI increase.