October Pump Prices Fell More Than 4%. That Is Not Tuesday's Inflation Number.

U.S. gasoline prices fell by more than 4% in October, CNBC reported Monday, citing the Energy Information Administration. That is a measured fuel move. It is not the inflation report due Tuesday, and it is not a new national price for this week.

CNBC said the October decline interrupted a surge of more than $1 a gallon over the past year. The article did not give Monday's average price per gallon. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release the October consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. The Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC is a 0.3% monthly increase overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. There will be no official annual rate, because last year's shutdown left no comparable index. Bank of America's 3.8% headline and 2.7% core figures use the bank's own baseline. They are not the official release.

A decline in fuel can be offset by food, rent, or services. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that living costs, not hiring, dominate what he hears. He does not vote on rates this year, and the Fed made no decision Monday.

Does October's gasoline decline mean Tuesday's inflation report will show that prices fell? No. The index has not been released. Forecasters cited by CNBC still expect a monthly increase, and one fuel decline does not settle the whole basket.