Hormuz Attacks Rose in October. Average Oil Flows Mostly Held.

CNBC reported on October 30 that more commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in October than in any earlier month of the Iran war. As of October 27, at least 30 vessels, mostly oil tankers, had been hit, while average October crude exports through Hormuz were nearly 11.1 million barrels a day.

The attack count, drawn from International Maritime Organization data, was double September’s 15 confirmed incidents, and at least 16 seafarers were injured. The export average, from Kpler data cited by CNBC, was only about 2 percent below September. The final week was weaker: 7.3 million barrels a day, more than 40 percent below the prewar baseline.

The quantified cost is freight. Analyst Mary Melton’s reported figures put a Gulf of Oman-to-Asia supertanker at more than $900,000 a day in the first week of October, up from $249,000 in early September, or about $21 a barrel versus $6.50. Brent traded above $117 on Friday. The report does not show a U.S. retail gasoline increase.

Have October’s Hormuz attacks been shown to raise U.S. gasoline prices? No U.S. pump-price increase was established. The report shows more attacks, a still-large monthly average flow, a weaker final week, and much higher freight costs.