December Hike Odds Hit 76.8%. A Fixed Loan Did Not.

Stronger October hiring changed a market bet on the Federal Reserve. It did not change the Fed’s target on Friday, Nov. 6. CNBC reported that traders, using the CME FedWatch tool, raised the probability of another quarter-point increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting to 76.8 percent. The same reading pointed to only one further increase after that. CNBC said odds of additional hikes in 2027 had eased after the midterms and Thursday’s tech sell-off.

A probability is not a vote already taken. The Fed has not announced a December decision, and Friday’s jobs report did not reset a fixed-rate mortgage, car loan, or card you already have. If the committee does raise the target in December, a lender could reprice new credit. That step has not happened.

The 165,000-job gain and the drop in unemployment to 4.1 percent were reported earlier on Friday. The new fact here is the market probability attached to that report, not a second jobs count.

Did the 76.8 percent odds raise the rate on a loan you already have? No. CNBC was describing a market probability for the Dec. 8-9 meeting, not a change to the Fed’s target or to an existing fixed payment.