December Hike Odds Hit 81%. Your Fixed Loan Did Not.

The odds traders assign to a December Federal Reserve rate increase were higher on Monday. That probability is not a new Fed decision, and it did not reset a fixed loan.

CNBC said CME FedWatch showed an 81% chance of a December hike, compared with 73% before Friday's jobs report. Friday's separate CNBC reading of the same tool, already reported, was 76.8%. All of these figures price a future meeting. They are not votes.

Treasury yields barely moved. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for many new mortgages and business loans, was 4.853%, down less than one basis point from the level reported earlier Monday. The two-year yield was 4.538%, up more than one basis point. The 30-year yield was 5.253%, down less than one basis point. CNBC, citing Trading Economics, said Tuesday's forecast for October consumer prices is 3.9%, up from 3.7% in September. That 3.9% figure remains a forecast, not a released index.

A higher probability can affect a new variable-rate offer only if a lender changes its price. No new mortgage quote was published.

Did the 81% December odds change a fixed loan you already have? No. Monday's figure is a market probability. No change to the Fed's target or to an existing fixed payment was announced.