Event date: October 2, 2026. Euro-area annual inflation rose to a flash estimate of 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, Eurostat reported. Prices increased 0.6% from August to September on the same measure. Energy inflation accelerated to 18.8% from 14.3% in August, while services inflation rose to 3.2% from 3.0%.
Price growth excluding energy was 2.3%, up from 2.1% in August. Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation increased to 1.4%, while non-energy industrial goods inflation eased to 1.1%. The result is an early estimate rather than the final harmonised index, which Eurostat says is scheduled for October 16.
Energy is therefore the main confirmed driver of the monthly acceleration. It is not yet clear how much of the energy shock will pass through to services, wages or other goods. The euro-area comparison also uses the evolving 21-country composition after Bulgaria joined the currency area in January 2026.
Reader question: Does this mean all prices rose 3.8% in September? No. The figure is the average annual change in the consumer-price basket, with energy contributing disproportionately to the increase.