Tuesday's inflation surprise changed market odds, not a loan that is already fixed. After the October consumer price report on Nov. 10, CNBC said traders fully priced a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase for the Dec. 8-9 meeting. It put the chance of a half-point hike at 13.6%, after that larger move had been priced around zero before the release. Fox Business, also citing the CME FedWatch tool, put the quarter-point chance at 87.3% and the half-point chance at 12.7%. Those are two readings of a live market gauge, not a committee vote.
The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expected policy rates, rose more than 0.1 percentage point to 4.67%, the Times reported. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Tuesday that she sees a need for two further quarter-point increases and called the CPI report higher than expected. The Fed's target range was not changed by either the data or those remarks. A fixed-rate payment already in force was not reset, and no new mortgage quote was published with the report.
Could Tuesday's inflation report raise a fixed-rate payment you already have? No change to the Fed's target or to an existing fixed payment has been announced. What changed on Nov. 10 is market pricing for December and a two-year yield at 4.67%.