China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, returning just above the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction in the survey. The National Bureau of Statistics published the result Wednesday, September 30. The reading indicates a modest improvement in surveyed conditions, not a 0.3% increase in factory output.
The survey showed a split by business size. Large manufacturers registered 50.6, unchanged from August, while medium-sized firms were at 49.7 and small firms at 48.9. The production index rose 1.3 points to 51.7, while new orders eased 0.1 point to 50.5. The employment and raw-material inventories indexes remained below 50, indicating that reported conditions in those areas were still weaker than the survey's expansion threshold.
A reading barely over 50 is consistent with a fragile return to expansion rather than a broad-based boom. The PMI is a monthly survey indicator; later output, sales, and trade data will be needed to see whether the improvement persists.
Reader question: Does 50.1 show China's factories grew 0.1%? No. It is a survey diffusion index. A reading above 50 means expansion is more widely reported than contraction, not that output grew by that percentage.