Markets Price a Canadian Rate Hike. Forecasts Still Say Hold.

The Bank of Canada's policy rate is still 2.25%, unchanged since a quarter-point cut in October 2025, and the bank has not raised it since July 2023. On October 21, CBC reported that another hold on October 28 remains the widely cited economist forecast, but market odds have moved. Overnight swap traders put a 25-basis-point increase at 87%, up from 70% earlier this week, according to Bloomberg data cited by CBC. The same Bloomberg economist survey still points to a hold. Bank of Montreal, RBC Dominion Securities, and Desjardins switched their calls from hold to hike.

Governor Tiff Macklem said Saturday that borrowing costs might need to rise if energy prices stay high. A hike, if announced, would lift variable-rate mortgage payments immediately and new fixed-rate offers. An existing fixed payment would not automatically reset. Ben Rabidoux said national home-sales volume is at a 25-year low, so higher borrowing costs would land on an already weak market. None of the bank switches is itself a decision.

Would an October 28 hike change a Canadian mortgage payment immediately? Not one that is already fixed. No rate decision has been announced. A higher policy rate would affect variable-rate loans at once and new fixed offers only if the Bank actually raises it.