Some new U.S. businesses are opening without a payroll, but that is not proof they will stay that way. A Nov. 7 CNBC report says that, in industries highly exposed to AI, business applications without early signs of hiring rose 26.8% from the first quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2026, from about 222,000 to 281,000 a quarter. Applications with stronger signs of becoming employer firms fell 6.4%. In construction and wholesale trade, the comparison group, non-employer-type applications slipped 0.4%.
Labor economist Liya Palagashvili told CNBC the findings are preliminary and do not establish that AI caused the change. The Census-based measure also does not show that those businesses never hired later.
The company examples are individual, not a national average. Alex Willen said 12 no-employee e-commerce brands may generate $2.5 million to $3 million this year. Kristin Ginn said her consultancy has about $250,000 received or contracted and no employees. FreshBooks found 79% of surveyed solopreneurs had tried AI before hiring for a task they could not do.
Does a filing without hiring plans mean that business will never hire? No. The 26.8% figure counts applications that lacked early hiring signals. It does not show those firms remained one-person businesses.